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Organizing DemocracyHow International Organizations Assist New Democracies$
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Paul Poast and Johannes Urpelainen

Print publication date: 2018

Print ISBN-13: 9780226543345

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: September 2018

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226543512.001.0001

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Quantitative Evidence on Democratic Consolidation and International Organizations

Quantitative Evidence on Democratic Consolidation and International Organizations

(p.101) Chapter Five Quantitative Evidence on Democratic Consolidation and International Organizations
Organizing Democracy

Paul Poast

Johannes Urpelainen

University of Chicago Press

This chapter continues the quantitative evaluation of our argument by subjecting to empirical evidence the claims that IOs can minimize the need for good fortune by performing mundane tasks that promote democratic consolidation and that IOs lack the coercive capacity necessary to stop autocratic reversals. The evidence shows that IO membership has a strong and positive influence on the prospects of democratic consolidation. But there are limits to what IOs can do for democratizing states. IO membership does nothing to deter authoritarian reversals in the absence of consolidation. Some things, such as preventing autocratic reversals, democratizing states must do for themselves. The chapter begins by offering several empirical implications and then proceeds to quantitatively test these implications. This entails developing a statistical method that accounts for both the self-selection of democratizing states into IOs and the unobservable nature of democratic consolidation.

Keywords:   split-population model, selection models, consolidate as unobservable

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