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Species and Speciation in the Fossil Record$
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Warren D. Allmon and Margaret M. Yacobucci

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780226377445

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: May 2017

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226377582.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM CHICAGO SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.chicago.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Chicago Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CHSO for personal use.date: 28 September 2021

Fitting Ancestral Age-Dependent Speciation Models to Fossil Data

Fitting Ancestral Age-Dependent Speciation Models to Fossil Data

(p.198) Chapter Six Fitting Ancestral Age-Dependent Speciation Models to Fossil Data
Species and Speciation in the Fossil Record

Lee Hsiang Liow

Torbjørn Ergon

University of Chicago Press

While models of extinction are a subject of intense study, models of speciation are somewhat under-explored among paleobiologists working with paleontological datasets. On the other hand, comparative biologists working with extant lineages have largely focused on the net process of extinction and speciation, namely diversification. Such models of diversification have included those that have constant, diversity-dependent or time-varying rates over the history of a given clade. In this chapter, we specifically explore models of age-dependent speciation, where the probability of speciation for a given ancestral species might change as it ages. We discuss the properties of speciation models with continuous age-dependent hazard functions and devise an approach to fit these models to empirical data while accounting for extinctions of the ancestral species. While there are few empirical datasets that are suitable for the exploration of age-dependent speciation models, we found evidence for declining, increasing and constant speciation rates with age in different taxa. We discuss the biological implications and consequences of each of these models.

Keywords:   age-dependent extinction, speciation hazard function, macroperforate foraminifera, bryozoan, bathtub model, Weibull model

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