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Social SecurityA Fresh Look at Policy Alternatives$
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Jagadeesh Gokhale

Print publication date: 2010

Print ISBN-13: 9780226300337

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: February 2013

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226300368.001.0001

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Peering into the Future

Peering into the Future

Chapter:
(p.77) Chapter Four Peering into the Future
Source:
Social Security
Author(s):

Jagadeesh Gokhale

Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226300368.003.0004

This chapter describes forward motion of Demographic and Economic Micro Simulation (DEMSIM) beyond 2006—the “projected simulation.” If the demographic and economic forces that drive the historical simulation through 2006 capture reasonably accurately the historical evolution of the U.S. population and economy for all key variables, carrying those forces forward should capture the future evolution of those variables and provide a foundation for analyzing the financial outlook for a program such as Social Security—whose finances are closely influenced by the characteristics of the population that it serves. The future evolution of demographic and economic attributes of the simulated population carries forward the momentum of forces built into the current population structure. It is modified slightly each year by the demographic attributes assigned to immigrants. Thus, historical trends in mortality, fertility, education acquisition, labor force participation and earnings, and marital rates and patterns, along with assumed rates of labor productivity growth, determine the future population's characteristics.

Keywords:   projected simulation, Social Security, financial outlook, economic forces, demographic

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