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Masters of UncertaintyWeather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth$
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Phaedra Daipha

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780226298542

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: May 2016

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226298719.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM CHICAGO SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.chicago.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Chicago Press, 2022. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CHSO for personal use.date: 24 May 2022

Anticipating the Future

Anticipating the Future

Temporal Regimes of Meteorological Decision Making

(p.138) Five Anticipating the Future
Masters of Uncertainty

Phaedra Daipha

University of Chicago Press

Turning to the temporal dimensions of meteorological decision-making, this chapter identifies two principles underlying the logic of weather forecasting practice: risk and scale. The former rests on a demarcation between routine and non-routine operations, while the latter is driven by the fact that the more global the reach of a weather phenomenon the earlier its detection. The joint influence of risk and spatial scale on weather forecasting practice yields four temporal regimes of decision-making: emergency, extended alert, near-term, and longer-term. This rudimentary framework is elaborated through an analysis of its empirical manifestation in summer weather forecasting, winter weather forecasting, short-term forecasting, and long-term forecasting respectively. The analysis complicates dual-process models of cognitive processing by establishing that, in practice, deliberation and heuristics are combined across disparate temporal regimes to produce organizationally sanctioned, skilled decisions.

Keywords:   temporal embeddedness, emergency decision-making, extended alert, short-term decision-making, longer-term decision-making, severe weather forecasting, sensemaking, dual-process theories, short-term forecasting, long-term forecasting

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