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Masters of UncertaintyWeather Forecasters and the Quest for Ground Truth$
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Phaedra Daipha

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780226298542

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: May 2016

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226298719.001.0001

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Anticipating the Future

Anticipating the Future

Temporal Regimes of Meteorological Decision Making

Chapter:
(p.138) Five Anticipating the Future
Source:
Masters of Uncertainty
Author(s):

Phaedra Daipha

Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226298719.003.0006

Turning to the temporal dimensions of meteorological decision-making, this chapter identifies two principles underlying the logic of weather forecasting practice: risk and scale. The former rests on a demarcation between routine and non-routine operations, while the latter is driven by the fact that the more global the reach of a weather phenomenon the earlier its detection. The joint influence of risk and spatial scale on weather forecasting practice yields four temporal regimes of decision-making: emergency, extended alert, near-term, and longer-term. This rudimentary framework is elaborated through an analysis of its empirical manifestation in summer weather forecasting, winter weather forecasting, short-term forecasting, and long-term forecasting respectively. The analysis complicates dual-process models of cognitive processing by establishing that, in practice, deliberation and heuristics are combined across disparate temporal regimes to produce organizationally sanctioned, skilled decisions.

Keywords:   temporal embeddedness, emergency decision-making, extended alert, short-term decision-making, longer-term decision-making, severe weather forecasting, sensemaking, dual-process theories, short-term forecasting, long-term forecasting

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