Managing Risk
Managing Risk
The Trials and Tribulations of Hazardous Weather Forecasting
The chapter begins by outlining NWS efforts to articulate and streamline the management of meteorological risk into a government meteorology. To properly showcase the challenges of actually managing meteorological risk on the ground, the chapter next launches into a thick description of two missed weather events. The first incident serves as an illustration of the serious repercussions that may arise from a missed hazardous weather forecast even in the absence of any hazardous weather whatsoever. The second incident details the aftermath of a forecast that missed the first snow squalls of the season; a forecast that would have gone unnoticed only a few days later but, on that day, led to hundreds of road accidents and a statewide, five-hour long traffic standstill. The concluding discussion, on the duality of meteorological error, reflects on the essential irresolvability of the “overforecasting versus underforecasting” dilemma and considers its implications for managing risk at the NWS.
Keywords: hazardous weather, risk management, acceptable risk, forecast verification, forecast accuracy, busted forecast, duality of error
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