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The Future of Healthcare Reform In the United States$
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Anup Malani and Michael H. Schill

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780226254951

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: May 2016

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226255002.001.0001

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Estimating the Impact of the Demand for Consumer-Driven Health Plans Following the 2012 Supreme Court Decision of the Constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

Estimating the Impact of the Demand for Consumer-Driven Health Plans Following the 2012 Supreme Court Decision of the Constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

Chapter:
(p.135) Chapter Six Estimating the Impact of the Demand for Consumer-Driven Health Plans Following the 2012 Supreme Court Decision of the Constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
Source:
The Future of Healthcare Reform In the United States
Author(s):

Stephen T. Parente

Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226255002.003.0006

This chapter assesses which of the alternative proposals to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may have the most impact in terms of cost per capita of covering the uninsured. Microsimulations estimate the impact of the ACA following the June 2012 Supreme Court decision to allow states to opt out of Medicaid expansion. The expansion of the private insurance market through state and federal insurance exchanges and the expansion of the Medicaid program for those with incomes less than 133% of the federal poverty line were modeled. The simulations predicted significant reductions in levels of uninsured depending on whether a state decides to accept or decline Medicaid expansion. Generally, states refusing coverage will have more uninsured and lower federal cost. At best the number of uninsured that would be reduced by the full implementation of ACA will be greater than 20 million, which would be the largest person-level coverage expansion in US history.

Keywords:   insurance, health reform, microsimulation, uninsured, health savings account, Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, PPACA

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