Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms
Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms
This chapter examines equity and housing price booms and crashes from a risk management perspective. Using equity price data from twenty seven countries and housing price data from seventeen countries, it looks at the various consequences of rising equity and housing prices for growth and inflation. It begins by examining how asset price booms influence the mean and variance of deviations in output and price level from their (time-varying) trends. It then proceeds to measure both the GDP at risk and the price level at risk that these booms create. The results shows that housing booms are bad in virtually every way imaginable; they drive the output gap down, increase its volatility, increase GDP at risk, and push the lower tail of outcomes even lower. By contrast, equity booms have little impact on either the level or volatility of the output and price-level gaps at horizons of three years; do not change GDP at risk, but increase the risk of prices falling dramatically below trend; and drive the lower tail (ETL) even lower.
Keywords: housing prices, equity, risk management, economic growth, inflation, GDP, asset price booms
Chicago Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.
Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.
If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.
To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs, and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us.
