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The Great InflationThe Rebirth of Modern Central Banking$
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Michael D. Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780226066950

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: September 2013

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226043555.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM CHICAGO SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.chicago.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Chicago Press, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CHSO for personal use.date: 19 February 2020

The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited

The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited

(p.119) 2 The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited
The Great Inflation

Alan S. Blinder

Jeremy B. Rudd

University of Chicago Press

Previous studies have concluded that the two OPEC shocks, the two roughly contemporaneous food price shocks, and the removal of wage-price controls in 1973–1974 played key roles in the macroeconomic events which constituted the Great Stagflation. This chapter reexamines the supply-shock explanation in the light of new facts, new models, and new econometric findings, and shows that the “old-fashioned” supply-shock explanation holds up quite well. It is organized as follows. Section 2.2 outlines and slightly modernizes the basic conceptual framework, reexamining it in the light of much new theory and many new empirical findings, while Section 2.3 takes a fresh look at the evidence on the Great Inflation in the United States, once again using new data, new theory, and new econometric findings. Section 2.4 deals with a series of objections to the supply-shock explanation, while Section 2.5 looks beyond the narrow historical confines of the 1972 to 1982 period, considering supply shocks both prior to and after the Great Stagflation; and Section 2.6 concludes.

Keywords:   inflation rate, United States, supply shocks, Great Inflation, oil price shocks, OPEC shocks, monetary policy

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