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Transition ScenariosChina and the United States in the Twenty-First Century$
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David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780226040332

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.001.0001

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Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions

Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions

Chapter:
(p.47) Chapter Four Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions
Source:
Transition Scenarios
Author(s):

David P. Rapkin

William R. Thompson

Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.003.0004

If we assume structural change is critical to systemic transitions, which existing models are best suited for analyzing these phenomena? Three schools of thought – power transition, offensive realism, and leadership long cycle – are examined extensively. All three have positive and negative features but, on balance, we think the leadership long cycle approach is best suited. It distinguishes between regional and global activities and it has a long historical script (and, therefore, multiple transition cases). Analytical emphasis is placed on the role of radical technological changes as opposed to generic economic change or mainly the distribution of military power. One thing that is needed and carried out in this chapter is the integration of several different long cycle models into one challenger/transition model to guide the study of leadership transition dynamics.

Keywords:   systemic transitions, power transition, offensive realism, leadership long cycle, radical technological change, challenger/transition model

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