Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions
Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions
If we assume structural change is critical to systemic transitions, which existing models are best suited for analyzing these phenomena? Three schools of thought – power transition, offensive realism, and leadership long cycle – are examined extensively. All three have positive and negative features but, on balance, we think the leadership long cycle approach is best suited. It distinguishes between regional and global activities and it has a long historical script (and, therefore, multiple transition cases). Analytical emphasis is placed on the role of radical technological changes as opposed to generic economic change or mainly the distribution of military power. One thing that is needed and carried out in this chapter is the integration of several different long cycle models into one challenger/transition model to guide the study of leadership transition dynamics.
Keywords: systemic transitions, power transition, offensive realism, leadership long cycle, radical technological change, challenger/transition model
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