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Transition ScenariosChina and the United States in the Twenty-First Century$
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David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780226040332

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM CHICAGO SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.chicago.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Chicago Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CHSO for personal use.date: 27 November 2021

Scenarios of Future United States–China Warfare: What Is Missing from This Picture?

Scenarios of Future United States–China Warfare: What Is Missing from This Picture?

Chapter:
(p.25) Chapter Three Scenarios of Future United States–China Warfare: What Is Missing from This Picture?
Source:
Transition Scenarios
Author(s):

David P. Rapkin

William R. Thompson

Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.003.0003

Nine existing scenarios of intensive United States-China conflict are reviewed to demonstrate that such stories tend to focus too much on fighting wars, with insufficient attention given to other possibilities. Their drivers are not especially transparent, meaningful constraints tend to be absent, as is any recognition of the significance of economic and technological competition between the two main antagonists. Fighting is usually about Chinese territorial expansion and the actor focus tends to be fixated on a two actor world, as if only the main protagonists matter. Of course, these stories represent fictions constructed for entertainment and, sometimes, political messaging. They alert us to some of the things to avoid in developing scenarios for social science purposes.

Keywords:   United States-China warfare, Scenarios, drivers, Constraints, technological competition

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