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Transition ScenariosChina and the United States in the Twenty-First Century$
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David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780226040332

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.001.0001

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Using the Scenarios in the Twenty-FirstCentury

Using the Scenarios in the Twenty-FirstCentury

(p.211) Chapter Eleven Using the Scenarios in the Twenty-FirstCentury
Transition Scenarios

David P. Rapkin

William R. Thompson

University of Chicago Press

The five scenarios are summarized and analyzed comparatively in terms of structural, secondary, and constraining drivers. Putting aside the differences among the scenarios, they alert us to what we should be looking for in terms of drivers, frictions, and constraints. Forward reasoning does not predict the future. It is simply a device for thinking rigorously about what might happen – in this case, closely harnessed to international relations theory. The scenarios will need to be “tested” continuously into the future to see whether any approximate emerging reality and what the practical and theoretical implications of emerging reality might be.

Keywords:   drivers, scenarios, forward reasoning

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