Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Bringing in the FutureStrategies for Farsightedness and Sustainability in Developing Countries$
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content.

William Ascher

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780226029160

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: February 2013

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226029184.001.0001

Show Summary Details
Page of

PRINTED FROM CHICAGO SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.chicago.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of Chicago Press, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in CHSO for personal use.date: 06 April 2020

Managing Heuristics

Managing Heuristics

Chapter:
(p.213) Chapter Twelve Managing Heuristics
Source:
Bringing in the Future
Author(s):

William Ascher

Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226029184.003.0012

This chapter addresses the examination of heuristics. The availability heuristic, similarity heuristic, affect heuristic, fluency heuristic, causality heuristic, and surprise heuristic are discussed. Several of the heuristics contribute to the widespread phenomenon of overconfidence or exaggerated certainty. Overconfidence can work to the advantage of a farsighted appeal when people's expectations are that the initiative will succeed. An important approach to reducing biases arising from any of the heuristics is to provide information and explanation that will offset misleading characterizations. The chapter shows that the operation of heuristics as intuitive analytic shortcuts poses both problems and opportunities. It is important to overcome the unfortunate perception that heuristics are so inextricably linked to bias and false conclusions that they simply ought to be suppressed. Moreover, the chapter considers four points that address the issues of bias and manipulation.

Keywords:   heuristics, overconfidence, certainty, farsighted appeal, biases, manipulation

Chicago Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.

Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs, and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us.