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Quantitative Evidence on Forming versus Joining

Quantitative Evidence on Forming versus Joining

(p.69) Chapter Four Quantitative Evidence on Forming versus Joining
Organizing Democracy
Paul PoastJohannes Urpelainen
University of Chicago Press

This chapter begins the quantitative evaluation of our theory. Using comprehensive data from the later decades of the twentieth century, the chapter shows that the broad patterns of joining and forming IOs among democratizing states are consistent with our expectations. While democratization does not encourage countries to join existing organizations, there is a strong positive association between democratic transition and IO formation. Furthermore, democratizing countries have a tendency to form the kinds of organizations that best fit the needs of a democratic transition. Overall, these results show that our theory can explain the main patterns in the available data. The chapter begins by presenting empirical implications that, if supported by the data, would support our theoretical claims. The chapter then discusses the data used to measure our two core concepts, IO membership and democratization. After considering some basic patterns in the data, we turn to multivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis then accounts for features of the data that can undermine conclusions based on simply observing the data.

Keywords:   regression analysis, polity data, COW IGO data

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