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First-Order Effects of Relative Cohort Size

First-Order Effects of Relative Cohort Size

Long-term Trends in Unemployment, Relative Income, and Returns to College

(p.86) 5 First-Order Effects of Relative Cohort Size
Birth Quake
Diane J. Macunovich
University of Chicago Press

This chapter concentrates on male relative income, unemployment, and returns to college education. It specifically utilizes aggregate data to look at the impacts of changing relative cohort size on the earning potential of younger men, relative to that of older men. It is assumed that the proportion of the active military aged 20–24 affected the relative income and earnings of young males. Furthermore, trade effects seem to have strongly operated, along with cohort effects, on the college wage premium, but the influences of trade appear to have been much less on male relative income. The male relative earnings will indeed be lower when relative cohort size is large. The cohort size effects have in fact been the most significant factor in deciding the labor market outcomes of young men and women, and are showing signs of exerting strong positive forces over the next few decades.

Keywords:   male relative income, unemployment, college education, relative cohort size, earnings, younger men, active military, trade, labor market

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