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Macroeconomic Correlations: GDP Growth, Inflation, Savings Rates, and the Stock Market

Macroeconomic Correlations: GDP Growth, Inflation, Savings Rates, and the Stock Market

Chapter:
(p.231) 15 Macroeconomic Correlations: GDP Growth, Inflation, Savings Rates, and the Stock Market
Source:
Birth Quake
Author(s):
Diane J. Macunovich
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226500928.003.0016

This chapter considers some of the preliminary findings on the separate measures of U.S. GDP growth, inflation, savings rates, and the stock market. It performs a very simple analysis using time series of macroeconomic and population data to explore the possibility of correlations between population age structure and economic performance. Young people in the household- and family-formation stage are expected to have an inordinately strong effect on GDP growth. There is a strong relationship between age structure and longer-term change in measures of macroeconomic performance. The sharp dislocation between 1918–1920 is due to age structure effects of the flu epidemic at that time, in combination with war-time losses and drastic reductions in immigration. It is shown that changes in the age structure of the population might have been responsible for the marked cyclicality in the underlying patterns of longer-term change in these measures during the twentieth century.

Keywords:   GDP growth, inflation, savings rates, stock market, population age structure, economic performance, immigration

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