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In Time of WarUnderstanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq$

Adam J. Berinsky

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780226043586

Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: March 2013

DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226043463.001.0001

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(p.246) Appendix D Statistical Significance of Ethnic Variables

(p.246) Appendix D Statistical Significance of Ethnic Variables

Source:
In Time of War
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press

In chapter 6, I present the substantive effect of the group attachment enmity variables on opinion about World War II. The full-model results used to estimate these effects are presented in the online appendix to this book (http://www.press.uchicago.edu/books/berinsky/). Although it is not technically possible to compute the standard errors needed to construct statistical tests, the consistency of the sign and magnitude of the ethnic effects speaks to their robustness across a number of data sets. In this appendix, I present examples of tests of the statistical significance of the ethnic variables (the full set of tests is available in the online appendix). In each of these tables, the entries represent the results of a likelihood-ratio test against the null hypothesis that each of the ethnic variables has “no effect.” (p.247)

Table D.1 The power of ethnic attachments, before the United States' entry into World War II, August 1939 (likelihood-ratio tests)

Tend to own business

No question soimportant that U.S. should risk war

Don't allow England/France to buy food

Don't allow England/France to buy war supplies

Don't send U.S. Army and Navy abroad to help

English best

X2(3) = 27.20;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 8.14;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.04

X2(3) = 14.72;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 16.23;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 30.91;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

Germans best

X2(3) = 0.19;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.98

X2(3) = 9.16;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.03

X2(3) = 1.93;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.59

X2(3) = 5.42;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.14

X2(3) = 12.92;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

Italians best

X2(3) = 2.63;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.45

X2(3) = 0.72;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.87

X2(3) = 0.62;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.89

X2(3) = 4.15;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.24

X2(3) = 3.70;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.30

Germans worst

X2(3) = 3.36;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.34

X2(3) = 4.26;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.23

X2(3) = 6.69;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.08

X2(3) = 9.08;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.03

X2(3) = 15.87;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

Italians worst

X2(3) = 11.96;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.01

X2(3) = 14.05;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 9.13;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.03

X2(3) = 34.58;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 26.00;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

Restrict rights of Jews in Americaa

X2(3) = 4.11;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.25

X2(3) = 17.06;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 17.16;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 10.30;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.02

X2(3) = 6.47;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.09

Source: Author analysis of Roper Survey 7 (August 1939).

(a) Those who would restrict the right of Jews in America have rejected the statement, “In the United States the Jews have the same standing as any other people, and they should be treated in all ways exactly as any other Americans.”

(p.248)

Table D.2 The power of ethnic attachments, before the United States' entry into World War II, 1941 (likelihood-ratio tests)

European theater

Date

Axis variable test

Allies variable test

Help England rather than stay out

January 28, 1941

X2(1) = 27.65;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(1) = 12.03;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

March 12, 1941

X2(1) = 74.26;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(1) = 3.78;

Pr〉X2 = 0.05

March 28, 1941

X2(1) = 76.21;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(1) = 2.41;

Pr〉X2 = 0.125

Defeat Germany rather than stay out

January 28, 1941

X2(1) = 12.22;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(1) = 2.29;

Pr〉X2 = 0.13

Willing to fight in Europe if U.S. gets involved?

March 12, 1941

X2(2) = 17.99;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 6.19;

Pr〉X2 = 0.05

Vote to go to war?

January 28, 1941

X2(2) = 10.93;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 6.66;

Pr〉X2 = 0.04

Favor war if convoy is sunk?

January 28, 1941

X2(3) = 14.09;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 3.82;

Pr〉X2 = 0.28

Proximate questions?

Date

Axis variable test

Allies variable test

U.S. should fight preemptive wars?

March 12, 1941

X2(2) = 23.51;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 5.17;

Pr〉X2 = 0.08

U.S. should risk war to keep Japan down

March 28, 1941

X2(2) = 12.08;

Pr〉X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 5.07;

Pr〉X2 = 0.08

U.S. should defend Latin America if attacked by European power?

March 28, 1941

X2(2) = 4.67;

Pr〉X2 = 0.10

X2(2) = 0.81;

Pr〉X2 = 0.67

Sources: Author analysis of OPOR 806 (January 28, 1941), OPOR 807 (March 12, 1941), and OPOR 808W (March 28, 1941).

(p.249)

Table D.3 The power of ethnic attachments, aft er the United States' entry into World War II (likelihood-ratio tests)

If the German army overthrew Hitler and then off ered to stop the war and discuss peace terms with the Allies, would you favor or oppose accepting the off er of the German army?

OPOR survey number

Date

Axis test

Allies test

811T

January 1942

X2(3) = 15.08;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(3) = 5.06;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.08

817

June 1942

X2(2) = 32.94;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 0.25;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.88

6

April 1943

X2(2) = 2.91;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.23

X2(2) = 0.97;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.62

15

August 1943

X2(2) = 5.12;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.08

X2(2) = 4.97;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.08

21

January 1944

X2(2) = 14.12;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 2.62;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.27

26

April 1944

X2(2) = 20.55;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.00

X2(2) = 0.16;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.92

27

June 1944

X2(1) = 2.38;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.30

X2(1) = 6.55;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.04

30

August 1944

X2(2) = 6.49;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.04

X2(2) = 1.47;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.48

33K

October 1944

X2(2) = 7.87;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.02

X2(2) = 0.43;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.80

38

February1945

X2(2) = 1.17;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.56

X2(2) = 0.77;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.68

43

April 1945

X2(2) = 6.46;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.04

X2(2) = 1.84;

Pr 〉 X2 = 0.40

Sources: Author analysis of OPOR surveys.

Economic Policy Analysis

The coding of the variables for the analysis of the 1986 South Africa sanctions can be found in the online appendix. The coefficients I used to generate the predicted probabilities in chapter 6 are presented in the following table. (p.250)

Table D.4 Bivariate probit selection model analysis of sanctions against South Africa

Variable

Coefficient

(SE)

Outcome equation

Constant

0.12

(0.31)

Black feeling thermometer (rescaled)

0.71

(0.27) **

Black

0.64

(0.17) **

Party identification

0.64

(0.16) **

Liberal

0.34

(0.14) **

Conservative

0.10

(0.12)

No ideology

0.22

(0.17)

Male

−0.22

(0.10)

Education

0.45

(0.24) *

Age

−1.32

(0.32) **

Selection equation

Constant

−1.59

(0.20) **

Black feeling thermometer (rescaled)

0.53

(0.20) **

Black

0.62

(0.13) **

Party identification

−0.20

(0.13)

Liberal

0.19

(0.12)

Conservative

−0.17

(0.10)

No ideology

−0.29

(0.12) **

Male

0.28

(0.08) **

Education

0.62

(0.19) **

Age

0.19

(0.26)

Political information

2.75

(0.24) **

Discuss politics

0.69

(0.18) **

Interviewer experience

0.17

(0.09) *

Refusal conversion

−0.23

(0.26)

Correlation parameters

ρ

−0.24

(0.17)

N / LL

1,346 / −1,164.12

Source: Author analysis of the 1986 National Elections Study.

(*) p 〈 .10;

(**) p 〈 .05.