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Transition Scenarios
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Transition Scenarios: China and the United States in the Twenty-First Century

David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson

Abstract

There is considerable speculation that the twenty-first century will witness a systemic leadership transition in which the United States, the incumbent system leader, is passed by China. The probability and timing of such a momentous event remains unclear. So, too, are the causal processes which might bring it about. Despite the occurrence of previous systemic transitions, commentators tend to treat the possible ascendance of China to predominance as a novelty. A different approach relies heavily on international relations theory and applies a forward reasoning approach to constructing a range ... More

Keywords: Systemic leadership, Transition, Forward reasoning, Scenarios

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2013 Print ISBN-13: 9780226040332
Published to Chicago Scholarship Online: January 2014 DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

David P. Rapkin, author

William R. Thompson, author